The difference between success and failure in business is how well that business is able to manage risk. This special issue of The Progressive Farmer provides ideas for managing risk in one of the most volatile times ever in agriculture.

Extreme Measures For Extreme Weather
Unpredictable weather is the new norm, putting your crops at higher risk.
By Bryce Anderson

First came the floods, then hurricanes. To a large extent, the 2008 crop year illustrates how harsh weather can be to an industry—and livelihood—dependent on it.

A tumultuous 2008 will be well-remembered for its extremes and wide-scale weather damage. It is also causing nearly everyone in agriculture to wonder, though, if 2008 is the start of a trend: Are we doomed to have nothing but harsh, difficult crop-growing weather for years to come?

That is a question scientists are trying to answer. This fall, Time magazine reported findings from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters that show the number of flood and storm disasters has gone up 7.4% every year in recent decades. Between 2000 and 2007, the growth was even faster, with an average annual increase of 8.4%.

Climate change debate. Some scientists blame climate change for the apparent increase in stormy weather. If this is true, what impact will climate change have on U.S. agriculture?

Pennsylvania State University geography professor and climate scientist William Easterling chaired a research project on climate change for the Pew Institute in 2004.

The team's conclusion takes an ominous tone in how long-standing climate change could affect production agriculture: "Agriculture in many northern regions is expected to adapt to climate change by taking advantage of changing climatic conditions to expand production, but agriculture in many southern regions is expected to contract with warmer, drier temperatures. Individual farmers may lose their livelihoods."

Warm temperature impact. Other researchers share Easterling's concerns. Jerry Hatfield is an ag climatologist and director of the National Tilth Laboratory at Iowa State University. He called attention to possible hazards of long-term climate change on Midwest corn production at an environmental conference in September.

"The window of pollination is getting shorter—down to three to five days from an average of 10 days in past decades," he says. Hatfield points out warmer weather stresses the pollination process, which usually begins in July in the Midwest.

"We're talking about the danger of cobs with fewer kernels or no kernels at all if the weather is too warm for pollination," Hatfield adds. "At 104 degrees, the pollen becomes sterile. Temperatures above the mid-90s can kill pollen."

Yet Nebraska state climatologist Al Dutcher isn't convinced heat is a major threat to crops even if global warming is a long-standing feature of the Earth's climate. When we interviewed him for this article, he was finishing research on weather extremes in Nebraska over the past 15 years. Heat during the summer was not a major feature. "One of the things we've noticed about temperatures in the past number of years is that the extremely hot days just aren't there," Dutcher explains. "All those high-temperature records that were set back in the 1930s are still around 70 years later. We just are not getting that hot."

Dutcher's research points instead to a generally warmer temperature pattern. That includes nightly lows going up consistently and measurably. "The big thing we noticed is how the mean temperatures have increased. But this is due mostly to what's gone on with the overnight lows being considerably warmer than earlier in the 20th century," Dutcher says.

Frost warning. Dutcher argues that our own management decisions help determine our vulnerability to weather-related risk. He points out that growers are moving corn planting earlier and earlier in the Midwest, putting the corn at increased risk for freeze damage and possibly replanting.

Regardless of the influence of global warming, growers are putting the crop in harm's way just by dropping the seed in the ground, he contends.  "We have a lot of corn going in the ground probably a good three weeks before (planting) used to be done," Dutcher says. "Anytime you put seed in the ground when the soil is still a little cool and there's a sizeable frost risk just by virtue of climatology, you can be hurting real fast."

Weather risk strategies. So where does this discussion leave us in assessing the weather risk factor for our business? What is the prospect for future weather patterns?

I look for the driver of our climate to be the same one we've had forever—the sun. The ebbs and flows of solar output are still the overriding major variables in determining what will happen. We will continue to have periods of weather cycles, like we always have, with changes over a two-week time frame continuing to be the primary forecast targets.

Tips to Tackle Weather Risk Crop insurance is a must. This is almost a cliché in today's high-dollar environment. But if there was ever a year when crop insurance made sense almost everywhere in the central U.S., 2008 was the year. Purchase seed with several factors in mind. Performance and yield are obviously key. But also look at growing-season length and a hybrid's or variety's track record in adverse conditions. Both are helpful in coping with unknown weather factors during the growing season. Check out New Crop traits. New traits are on the horizon that offer drought tolerance, greater water and nitrogen utilization and protection against various pests, diseases and environmental stress. Talk to your seed dealer or consultant to determine how these traits will best fit your fields and growing conditions. If viable, consider installing irrigation. The initial investment will offer years of returns in higher yields and more consistent performance of hybrids and varieties. Plan accordingly. Don't forget that as farming operations continue to get bigger, risk from inclement weather is spread over a wider area. Plan carefully when purchasing inputs and making management decisions. Photo: Jim Patrico